Projections of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination impact on non- cervical cancer outcomes among women in 117 low- and middle- income countries: a modelling study

This peer-reviewed modelling study, published in BMJ Global Health, estimates the potential health impact of bivalent HPV vaccination on four HPV-attributable non-cervical cancers among women—anal, oropharyngeal, vaginal and vulvar cancers—in 117 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) between 2030 and 2100. The authors used a static multicohort model comparing cancer outcomes with and without vaccination, incorporating country-specific vaccination coverage, HPV-16/18 type distribution, cancer incidence, mortality and demographic projections.

Key findings and insights

• Across 117 LMICs, bivalent HPV vaccination was projected to avert 4.92 million non-cervical cancer cases between 2030 and 2100: 590,000 anal, 880,000 oropharyngeal, 1.27 million vaginal and 2.18 million vulvar cases.
• HPV vaccination was projected to avert 3.02 million deaths from these four cancers, including 360,000 anal, 550,000 oropharyngeal, 800,000 vaginal and 1.30 million vulvar cancer deaths.
• The African Region was projected to experience the largest reductions in cancer cases: 42.8% for anal, 30.8% for oropharyngeal, 32.8% for vaginal and 44.2% for vulvar cancer, reflecting its higher cancer burden and lower vaccine adoption.
• Impact varied substantially by region and cancer type. By 2100, 58 countries were projected to achieve at least a 25% reduction in anal cancer deaths, compared with 47 for vulvar, 41 for vaginal and 25 for oropharyngeal cancer.
• The authors caution that results should be interpreted as indications of the relative magnitude and regional distribution of impact, rather than precise country-level estimates, given data gaps and the static model’s exclusion of herd immunity and benefits from male vaccination.

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